Multiple Myeloma Survival Increased Significantly The Past 15 Years, But Unevenly Across Ethnic And Age Groups

Sep 3, 2013

Posted By  and   on the Myeloma Beacon on Aug 31, 2013 2:01

Researchers recently reported updated sur­viv­al rates for multiple mye­lo­ma patients in the United States.  The results show that sur­viv­al has im­proved steadily – and markedly – from 1998 to 2009.

The average newly diagnosed myeloma patient 15 years ago, for exam­ple, was about one-third as likely as someone without myeloma to live another five years.

By the end of the 2000s, in contrast, that same myeloma patient would be 45 percent as likely as someone without myeloma to live another five years.

Ten-year myeloma sur­viv­al rates also increased markedly.  However, the average newly diagnosed mye­lo­ma patient in the late 2000s was still only 25 percent as likely to live an ad­di­tional ten years as a member of the general population.

Although the new study traces overall trends in sur­viv­al, its focus is on trends in sur­viv­al by ethnicity and age.

The study authors report that Non-Hispanic whites experienced the greatest improvements in sur­viv­al in the period covered by their study, followed by African-Americans and Hispanics.  The sur­viv­al of Asian and Pacific Islanders also improved, but not as much as in the other ethnic groups.

The findings indicate that myeloma patients belonging to ethnic minorities have not benefited as much from new myeloma treatments as non-Hispanic whites.  The researchers argue that unequal access to new treatment options, due to lower socioeconomic status and poor or no health insurance, may explain the disparity in sur­viv­al improvements.

The researchers also document in their study how myeloma sur­viv­al has increased across all age groups during the past 15 years.  This improvement, however, was substantially greater for patients diagnosed before the age of 70, compared to those diagnosed at older ages.

Indeed, although the investigators do not emphasize the point, their findings drive home the fact that new myeloma treatments introduced during the past 15 years have primarily benefited younger myeloma pa­tients.  Improvements in the sur­viv­al of older myeloma patients have been much more limited, and the sur­viv­al of older myeloma patients remains significantly lower than that of younger patients.

The researchers recognize that their analysis did not account for several important factors, such as chro­mo­somal abnormalities, stage of myeloma, prior lines of chemotherapy, and insurance coverage.

Further research is therefore needed, they write, to fully assess the impact of ethnicity and age on myeloma sur­viv­al.


While multiple myeloma remains a largely incurable disease, studies have shown that sur­viv­al for myeloma patients has improved substantially over the last few decades.  Improvements in sur­viv­al occurred in the 1990s due to the wider use of stem cell transplantation, and continued in the 2000s with the introduction of novel anti-myeloma agents such as thalidomide (Thalomid), Velcade (bortezomib), Revlimid (lenalidomide).

However, according to the authors of the current study, it is not clear whether sur­viv­al has in­creased equal­ly across all ethnic and age groups.

Results from a previous study showed little difference in myeloma sur­viv­al rates between Asians, African-Americans, and non-Hispanic whites. However, the study was based on data from patients diagnosed prior to 2003, meaning it could not address potential differences in the impact of novel agents on sur­viv­al across ethnic groups.

The researchers therefore sought to assess changes in the sur­viv­al of multiple myeloma patients – overall, and by ethnicity and age – in the first decade of the 21st century.

Study Design

An international group of researchers analyzed the records of 26,391 U.S. multiple myeloma patients using the National Cancer Institute’s Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database, which was started in 1973 and is now a key source of U.S. cancer statistics.

The SEER database houses information about a large sample of U.S. cancer patients, including data about each patient’s type of cancer, general demographic characteristics (age, gender, and race), type of initial treatment, and sur­viv­al.

The investigators included in their analysis patients with symptomatic (active) myeloma who were at least 15 years of age and who were diagnosed between 1993 and 2009.  The median age of the patients included in the analysis was 67 years.

The study authors separated the patients into four groups based on their ethnicity: Asian and Pacific Is­land­er, African-American, Hispanic, and non-Hispanic white.

In addition, the patients were separated into three age groups: 15 to 49 years old, 50 to 69 years old, and over 70 years old.

Sur­viv­al Rates

The investigators calculated myeloma sur­viv­al rates for the following three time periods: 1998 to 2001, 2002 to 2005, and 2006 to 2009.

The sur­viv­al rates calculated by the authors are what are known as relative sur­viv­al rates.  These are dif­fer­ent than the sur­viv­al rates typically seen in myeloma research articles, which are technically absolute sur­viv­al rates.

It is common in myeloma research studies to find statements such as “The five-year sur­viv­al rate was 60 percent.”  This (absolute) sur­viv­al rate means that, five years after their myeloma diagnosis, 60 percent of the patients in the study were still alive.

The 60 percent absolute sur­viv­al rate, however, does not put the sur­viv­al experienced by the myeloma pa­tients into perspective.  More specifically, it does not say how many more myeloma patients died over the course of the five years compared to how many people in the general population – of the same age, gender, and ethnicity – would have died during the same period.

Relative sur­viv­al rates, on the other hand, provide such perspective.  They take into account that people with­out myeloma also die.

In particular, the relative sur­viv­al rate is calculated by dividing the absolute sur­viv­al rate for a group of cancer patients by the absolute sur­viv­al rate for a similar group of people from the general population.

As an example, take the (fictitious) study mentioned above with the 60 percent absolute five-year sur­viv­al rate.  Assume that a large group of people similar in age, gender, and race to those in the study – but from the general population – would have experienced an 80 percent absolute sur­viv­al rate over the same five-year period.

In that case, the relative sur­viv­al rate of the myeloma patients in the study would be 75 percent (60/80=0.75, or 75 percent).

Absolute and relative sur­viv­al rates will be very similar for younger myeloma patients, because younger people from the general population do not die that often.  Relative sur­viv­al rates for older myeloma patients, on the other hand, will be higher than their corresponding absolute sur­viv­al rates.


Multiple Myeloma Relative Survival (all ethnicities, all ages)

The researchers found that the five-year rel­ative sur­viv­al rate for all myeloma patients increased from 35 percent during the 1998-2001 time period, to 40 percent during 2002-2005, and to 45 percent during 2006-2009 (see graph on the right).

The investigators observed a similar trend for the ten-year relative sur­viv­al rate. It in­creased from 16 percent during the 1998-2001 time period, to 20 percent during 2002-2005, and to 25 percent during 2006-2009.

However, the investigators noted differences in the sur­viv­al rate changes experienced over time by different ethnic groups.

Non-Hispanic white myeloma patients had the highest change in five-year sur­viv­al rate from 1998 to 2009 (9 percent), followed by African-American patients (8 percent), Hispanic patients (7 percent), and Asian and Pacific Islander patients (6 percent).

In the latest time period, and after adjustment for age distribution differences across ethnic groups, the five-year relative sur­viv­al rates were 45 percent for non-Hispanic whites, 42 percent for African-Americans, 40 percent for Hispanics, and 43 percent for Asian and Pacific Islanders.

The most recent ten-year relative sur­viv­al rates were 25 percent for non-Hispanic whites, 22 percent for African-Americans, 22 percent for Hispanics, and 28 percent for Asian and Pacific Islanders.

According to the researchers, there is currently no evidence that novel agents are less effective in minority patients. They therefore speculate that lack of access to these treatments – and, more broadly, to state-of-the-art medical care – may have contributed to the lower increases in sur­viv­al among minority myeloma patients.

Multiple Myeloma 5-Year Relative Survival (all ethnicities)

The investigators also found that younger patients had higher sur­viv­al rates and greater improvements in sur­viv­al rates over the past 15 years, compared to older pa­tients (see graph to the right).

Specifically, patients who were diagnosed between 15 years and 49 years of age had the highest five-year relative sur­viv­al rate in the most recent time period (66 percent), followed by those who were diagnosed between 50 years and 69 years of age (52 percent), and those who were diagnosed when they were at least 70 years of age (31 percent).

The increases over time in the five-year relative sur­viv­al rates were similar among patients younger than 50 years of age and patients between 50 years and 69 years of age (13 percent for both). However, the increase was much smaller for patients 70 years of age and older (5 percent).

Multiple Myeloma 10-Year Relative Survival (all ethnicities)

The ten-year relative sur­viv­al rates in the most recent period were 47 percent for the youngest age group, 30 percent for the middle age group, and 13 percent for the oldest age group (see graph to the right).

The researchers once again observed improvements over time when looking at trends in the ten-year sur­viv­al rates, al­though improvements were heavily con­cen­trated among younger myeloma pa­tients. The ten-year sur­viv­al rate increased 13 percent for patients younger than 50 years of age, 12 percent for patients between 50 years and 69 years, and just 3 percent for patients 70 years and older.

For more information, please see the study in the journal Leukemia and Lymphoma (abstract).

Photo by victoriapeckham on Flickr – some rights reserved.

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